Günter Coenen

 

Monetary Policy Research Division

Directorate General Research

European Central Bank

 

 

 

 

Contact

 

 

 

 

Mail

Sonnemannstrasse 20

 

 

 

60314 Frankfurt am Main

 

 

 

Germany

 

 

Phone

+49 69 1344 7887

 

 

Email

gunter.coenen[at]ecb.europa.eu

 

 

 

 

 

 

Biographical Information

 

Positions

European Central Bank, Directorate General Research

 

Head, Monetary Policy Research Division, 2011 – present

 

Head, Econometric Modelling Division, 2005 – 2011

 

Deputy Head, Monetary Policy Research Division, 2004 – 2005

 

Principal, Monetary Policy Research Unit, 2003 – 2004

 

Economist/Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Research Unit, 1998 – 2003

Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics Department

 

Economist, Econometric Modelling Division, 1996 – 1998

Education

 

Doctorate in Economics, University of Kiel, 1996

 

Diploma in Economics, University of Kiel, 1992

 

Pre-Diploma in Economics, University of Cologne, 1988

Research

 

Fields of Interest

 

Macroeconomics, monetary economics, macroeconomic modelling, applied time-series analysis

Work in Progress

 

·        “Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB’s Expanded Asset Purchase Programme: An Assessment Based on the New Area-Wide Model Augmented with Financial Intermediaries”, with Peter Karadi, Sebastian Schmidt and Anders Warne, mimeo.

·        Contribution to the IMF-led project on “Spillovers in Global Models” using the Euro Area Global Economy (EAGLE) model, with Igor Vetlov, mimeo.

 

Articles in Refereed Journals

 

·        “Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State-Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR Models”, with Anders Warne and Kai Christoffel, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. Revised version of ECB Working Paper No. 1536, with additional results for the Great Recession period and online appendix.

·        “Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment”, with Anders Warne, International Journal of Central Banking, 10(2), 7-54, 2014.

·        “Gauging the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages in the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(2), 367-386, 2013.

·        “Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 102(3), 71-76, 2012.

·        “Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models”, with Christopher Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Jesper Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, Carlos de Resende, John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt and Jan in ’t Veld, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(1), 22-68, 2012.

·        “DSGE Models and Their Use at the ECB”, with Kai Christoffel, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno and Frank Smets, SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 1(1-2), 51-65, 2010.

·        “Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area: Long-Run Benefits and Short-Run Costs”, with Matthias Mohr and Roland Straub, Economic Modelling, 25(5), 912-932, 2008.

·        “Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance in the Euro Area: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide Model”, with Peter McAdam and Roland Straub, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32(8), 2543-2583, 2008.

·        “Identifying the Influences of Nominal and Real Rigidities in Aggregate Price-Setting Behavior”, with Andrew Levin and Kai Christoffel, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(8), 2439-2466, 2007.

·        Inflation Persistence and Robust Monetary Policy Design”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 111-140, 2007.

·        “Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub, International Finance, 8(3), 435-470, 2005.

·        The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area”, with Ramón Adalid-Lozano, Peter McAdam and Stefano Siviero, International Journal of Central Banking, 1(1), 95-132, 2005.

·        Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy”, with Andrew Levin and Volker Wieland, European Economic Review, 49(4), 975-1006, 2005.

·        A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities”, with Volker Wieland, European Economic Review, 49(5), 1081-1104, 2005.

·        Asymptotic Confidence Bands for the Estimated Autocovariance and Autocorrelation Functions of Vector Autoregressive Models”, Empirical Economics, 30(1), 65-75, 2005.

·        “Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates”, with Volker Wieland, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 94(2), 80-84, 2004.

·        “Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero”, with Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Advances in Macroeconomics, 4(1), Article 1, 2004.

·        “Persistence, the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy”, with Ignazio Angeloni and Frank Smets, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50(5), 527-549, 2003.

·        The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan”, with Volker Wieland, Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 1071-1101, 2003.

·         The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area”, with Juan-Luis Vega, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(6), 727-748, 2001.

Chapters in Books

 

·        “Forecasting with DSGE Models”, with Kai Christoffel and Anders Warne, in Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (eds), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Oxford University Press, Oxford, Chapter 4, 89-127, 2011.

·        “International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation”, with Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland Straub, in Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler (eds), International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, NBER, Cambridge, M.A., Chapter 3, 175-192, 2010.

 

Other Publications

·        “When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work?”, with Juha Kilponen and Mathias Trabandt, Research Bulletin No. 10, European Central Bank, June 2010.

·        “A Real-Time DataBase (RTDB) for the Euro Area”, with Matteo Ciccarelli and Jérôme Henry, Research Bulletin No. 5, European Central Bank, December 2006.

·        “How Do VAT Changes Affect the Economy? An Illustration Using the New Area-Wide Model”, with Peter McAdam, Research Bulletin No. 4, European Central Bank, April 2006.

·        Discussion of “The New-Keynesian Phillips Curve When Inflation Is Non-Stationary: The Case of Canada” by Nicoletta Batini and Bergljot Bjørnson Barkbu, in Bank of Canada (ed.), Issues in Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, 82-87, 2006.

·        Extended summary of “The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan”, with Volker Wieland, in NBER (ed.), 2003 Japan Conference: A Summary of the Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 8-9, 2004.

·        “Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Long-Run Phillips Curve: Simulation-Based Evidence for the Euro Area”, in Otmar Issing (ed.), Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 127-138, 2003.

·        Zero Lower Bound: Is It a Problem in the Euro Area?”, in Otmar Issing (ed.), Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, 139-155, 2003.

·        Inflation versus Monetary Targeting in a P-Star Model with Rational Expectations”, in BIS (ed.), Topics in Monetary Policy Modeling, BIS Conference Papers, Vol. 4, Bank for International Settlements, Basle, 215-234, 1998.

·        Intertemporale Substitution in der Realen Konjunkturtheorie: Eine empirische Untersuchung unter Verwendung simulationsgestützter indirekter Schätz- und Testverfahren, Haag+Herchen, Frankfurt am Main, 1997.

·        “Das Sattelpunktproblem in der monetären Wechselkurstheorie”, WiSt, 24(8), 430-433, 1995.

 

European Central Bank Working Papers

 

·        “Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment”, with Anders Warne, ECB Working Paper No. 1582, August 2013. Also available as CFS Working Paper No. 427, August 2013.

·        “Predictive Likelihood Comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR Models”, with Anders Warne and Kai Christoffel, ECB Working Paper No. 1536, April 2013. A substantially revised version is available as CFS Working Paper No. 478, June 2014.

·        “Gauging the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages in the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, ECB Working Paper No. 1483, October 2012. Also available as FED International Finance Discussion Papers, 2012-1061, November 2012.

·        “Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt, ECB Working Paper No. 1429, March 2012. An extended version was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in Chicago, January 2012.

·        “Forecasting with DSGE Models”, with Kai Christoffel and Anders Warne, ECB Working Paper No. 1185, May 2010.

·        “The New Area-Wide Model of the Euro Area: A Micro-Founded Open-Economy Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis”, with Kai Christoffel and Anders Warne, ECB Working Paper No. 944, October 2008.

·        “Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area: Long-Run Benefits and Short-Run Costs”, with Matthias Mohr and Roland Straub, ECB Working Paper No. 902, May 2008.

·        “International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation”, with Giovanni Lombardo, Frank Smets and Roland Straub, ECB Working Paper No. 858, January 2008.

·        “Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance in the Euro Area: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide Model”, with Peter McAdam and Roland Straub, ECB Working Paper No. 747, April 2007.

·        “Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area”, with Roland Straub, ECB Working Paper No. 513, August 2005. Earlier versions were circulated under the title “Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area”.

·        The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area”, with Ramón Adalid-Lozano, Peter McAdam and Stefano Siviero, ECB Working Paper No. 479, April 2005.

·        Identifying the Influences of Nominal and Real Rigidities in Aggregate Price-Setting Behavior”, with Andrew Levin, ECB Working Paper No. 418, November 2004. Revised version (with additional results for the United States), November 2006.

·        “Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 350, April 2004. An extended version was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, January 2004.

·        Inflation Persistence and Robust Monetary Policy Design”, ECB Working Paper No. 290, November 2003. Substantially revised version, October 2005.

·        Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Long-Run Phillips Curve: Simulation-Based Evidence for the Euro Area”, ECB Working Paper No. 270, September 2003.

·        Zero Lower Bound: Is It a Problem in the Euro Area?”, ECB Working Paper No. 269, September 2003.

·        Persistence, the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy”, with Ignazio Angeloni and Frank Smets, ECB Working Paper No. 250, August 2003.

·        Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero”, with Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 231, May 2003. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3892, May 2003.

·        The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 218, March 2003. Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3895, May 2003.

·        Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area and Japan”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 181, September 2002. Also available as FED International Finance Discussion Papers, 2000-745, December 2002.

·        Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy”, with Andrew Levin and Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 84, November 2001. Also available as FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2001-54, Federal Reserve Board, November 2001. Revised version available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3812, March 2003.

·        A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities”, with Volker Wieland, ECB Working Paper No. 30 (with technical appendix), September 2000. Revised version available as CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3572, September 2002.

·        Asymptotic Confidence Bands for the Estimated Autocovariance and Autocorrelation Functions of Vector Autoregressive Models”, ECB Working Paper No. 9, February 2000. Substantially revised version, July 2003.

·        The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area”, with Juan-Luis Vega, ECB Working Paper No. 6, September 1999.

Other Working Papers and Earlier Work

 

·        Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models”, with Christopher Erceg, Charles Freedman, Davide Furceri, Michael Kumhof, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Jesper Lindé, Annabelle Mourougane, Dirk Muir, Susanna Mursula, Carlos de Resende, John Roberts, Werner Roeger, Stephen Snudden, Mathias Trabandt and Jan in ’t Veld, IMF Working Paper No. 10/73, March 2010. Substantially revised version, July 2011.

·        “Estimation of the Euro Area Output Gap Using the NAWM”, with Frank Smets and Igor Vetlov, Bank of Lithuania Working Paper No. 5, June 2009.

·        Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in a P-Star Model with Rational Expectations Using Indirect Inference”, manuscript, Deutsche Bundesbank, May 1998.

·        Intertemporal Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in an RBC Model”, Discussion Paper of the Research Group of the Deutsche Bundesbank 2/98, April 1998.

·        A Further Note on Computing Competitive Equilibria in Linear-Quadratic Models”, manuscript, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Kiel, 1995.

·        Eine Einführung in die Analyse linearer sattelpunktstabiler Systeme”, Working Paper No. 66, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Kiel, 1993.

Links

 

 

European Central Bank [ECB]

 

Federal Reserve System [FED]

 

Center for Financial Studies [CFS]

 

University of Frankfurt [JWG]

 

Last change: 31 December 2015


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